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研究報告

更新日期: 2015-02-09
點閱數: 1,249

氣候變遷對太平洋及大西洋鮪旗魚類漁海況之影響分析

年度 2013
計劃名稱 氣候變遷對太平洋及大西洋鮪旗魚類漁海況之影響分析
中文摘要 本研究基於歷年之研究基礎,嘗試利用已建立之評估方法,配合不同尺度的海洋遙測資料及未來氣侯情境模擬資料,分析太平洋及大西洋之長鰭鮪、黃鰭鮪、大目鮪及劍旗魚漁況的未來可能變遷,標示可能的衝擊熱區,再探討產業或管理可能遭遇的問題。研究結果顯示,在A1B情境下,2050年時各主要鮪類在不同海域漁況衰退程度各異,但衰退率大多達到50%以上。太平洋漁況衰退熱區主要分佈於0°N以北及20°S以南,北太平洋衰退熱區分佈較南太平洋廣泛,而在大西洋以低緯度及非洲西部海域漁況衰退熱區的分佈最為廣泛。由於部分魚種經驗模式之解釋能力較低,加上環境因子情境模擬資料的不確定性,應保守看待目前之評估結果,並進一步由模式優化與更新的模擬數據提昇評估之信度。
英文摘要 Based on the study of previous years, we try to evaluate the possible change trend of albacore, yellowfin, bigeye tunas and swordfish by utilizing the methodology established and multi-scale data of remote sensing as well as the future climate scenario simulation provided by IPCC. We aim to identify hotspots with climate impact and discuss future problems faced by industry and management. The result indicated that under A1B scenario hook rate of most area of the two Oceans will decrease over 50% in spite of the variation among species. In the Pacific Ocean, the hot spot of hook rate decline may occurs between 0°N and 20°S but those for North Pacific are dispersed. In the Atlantic Ocean, relatively high decreased areas are located in waters of low latitude and west of Africa. Due to empirical model for some species has low variance explained and high uncertainty of environmental simulation factors, we should be very conservative about the present evolution before we have carried out the latest evolution with improved model and more up-to-date IPCC simulation data.
計畫編號 102農科-11.1.2-漁-F1(1)
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